2009 Mr. Olympia PreJudging Assessment
Since the Mr. Olympia contest began back in 1965, we've seen champions like Larry Scott, Arnold, Lee Haney, and Dorian go out on top. We have also witnessed many others lose the title and try in vain to reclaim it before finally giving up: Oliva, Zane, Dickerson, Bannout, and most recently Ronnie (assuming he never wins again). This weekend, we could very well see bodybuilding history made if Jay Cutler becomes the first Mr. O to ever lose the title and then win it again And it seems likely it will happen.
For a long time, everybody has been saying that Jay needs to bring back the look he had in 2001 when he was leading after the prejudging and came damn close to beating Ronnie. He was full, shredded, symmetrical (right to left sides equal in size and development), and his waist was smaller and tighter. Well guess what? Cutler must have found that time machine he was supposed to hop into. This was the best Jay we have seen in a long, lone time - probably since 2001. Those of us who thought that at age 36 and after competing since he was 19 that his body had just given out on him - and yes, I was a Cutler doubter - were all shut right the fuck up tonight when he walked out on stage and his hometown Las Vegas crowd went ballistic. Here are some notes on all the competitors, in numerical order.'
1) Branch Warren
Branch shocked a lot of people tonight. In what has been touted for months as being the toughest Mr. O lineup in over a decade, Warren wasn't supposed to have a chance. Apparently Branch ignored all that negative talk and came in thick as a mother, ripped, dry and grainy - a true freak but with good shape too. I would put money on Branch coming away from this with his highest O placing ever.
2) Troy Alves
This was the best Troy I have ever seen. His glutes were even in! Alves has wonderful shape and proportions - he's just too small to do damage at the Mr. Olympia amongst these bigger men. His legs are better than they used to be, but still a bit behind his upper body. Props to Troy for looking fantastic.
3) Hide Yamagishi
Hide keeps getting better at every show. His frame is on the small side, so it's tough for him to have enough mass to hang with the bigger guys. He does have a good amount of dense muscle, and he showed up shredded. With more overall mass and especially more back thickness, I can see Yamagishi moving up the line soon at the bigger shows.
4) Victor Martinex
Nobody in this show has a better structure and overall shape than Victor. He has all the size he needs too, and his conditioning was very good - just not great. He came close to the 2007 Olympia look tonight, but didn't quite nail it. I still thought he was in the running for a top three slot until it became clear from the callouts that the judges were thinking of him more like fifth or sixth place.
5) Melvin Anthony
I think this may be the biggest I have ever seen Marvelous, and he was still pretty sharp too. But he still doesn't have the crazy striations in the glutes and hams that guys like Jay, Dexter, Kai, Branch, and Phil did. I look forward to his routine tomorrow night, but I think he's fighting for seventh or eighth place at best.
6) Darrem Chalres
Darrem had told us all he was going to put on a lot of size, which at his age (40 I believe) didn't seem likely. Well, he did it - but in the process he showed up in probably the smoothest condition I've ever seen him in. Even his trademark cross-striated triceps and quads were blurry. If he can ‘grow into' this new mass, he'll be a threat - but I should also note that nearly all of this new muscle seems to be in his upper body, when it was his legs that really needed more size.
7) Ronny Rockel
This guy really looked phenomenal. Standing by himself, he seems flawless. He even dialed in his condition better than I ever recall seeing it. Ronny has great shape and symmetry and plenty of size - until you put him next to the taller guys who outweigh him by 20-50 pounds. If he can drop down to the 202's without giving up too much mass, I think he should. Ronny just gets ignored at a show like this.
8) Markus Ruhl
He's a crowd favorite, and why not? If you like gobs of freaky muscle, Ruhl is the poster boy. He had to have been up around 275 pounds, and he was in great shape too. But as much as I hate to point it out, his shoulders had a lumpy look that was distracting, and there were several odd lumps and bruises on his back. Not a pretty physique, just huge. Still, when he hits that crab most muscular, the roof nearly comes off the place.
9) Kai Greene
I like Kai and his physique a lot, and maybe I was expecting too much from him - such as a dramatic improvement over his look at the Arnold six months ago. He was a little bigger, and the condition was about the same. I heard that a couple of our play-by-play guys had him winning, and I would love to see it happen. What a Cinderella story that would make!
10) Martin Kjellstrom
Martin, from Sweden, is a huge man and he was diced - his glutes may have been the most clearly striated in the show. But he has a wide waist and not much of a V-taper at all, which kills him in a show with so many genetic freaks who do all have that exaggerated cartoon superhero shape. He also wore brown trunks, a bad move in my book as from a distance Martin appeared to be nude up there.
11) Bill Wilmore
Bill is a nice guy and works hard to improve. His back was one of the best in the contest. But he still needs more arms, and his legs need more sweep. Oddly, they look a lot bigger from the side, probably because his hams are so developed.
12) Jay Cutler
As I've said, this was the Jay we all used to know, the one that used to give Ronnie Coleman such a hard time year after year. I don't know how he did it (though the two hours of deep-tissue massage a day must have helped), but he fixed the asymmetry problem, nailed his condition, AND brought his waist in. I haven ‘t always been a big supporter of Jay in print, but I have to give my fellow Massachusetts native his props. Tonight he looked like Mr. Olympia. If he doesn't win tomorrow night, I would be very surprised.
13) Dennis Wolf
I really wanted Dennis to do well this year after he was flat last year and then had that hernia knock him out of the Arnold. But I don't know what happened to Dennis - he was not what I expected to see at all. He didn't seem as big or as conditioned as usual. His own frustration and disappointment were easy to read on his face in the lineup as he watched the first few callouts go by without him and he knew his goalof improving from fifth in 2007 and fourth in 2008 would not be achieved.
14) Dennis James
Big, thick man - but his large midsection takes away from the overall visual impact. In some shots he looks amazing, like the side chest and side triceps, as well as the most muscular. In other poses, not so amazing.
15) Joel Stubbs
The giant airline pilot from the Bahamas has a top-five Mr. O body from the waist up - but his legs look like they belong on a different person. If Joe ever gets those wheels to match his upper body, look out. Otherwise, he won't get much of a look at a show like this.
16) Toney Freeman
Toney wasn't quite as freaky dry and grainy here as he was back at the Arnold, but he was a whole lot bigger and fuller. I would guess he had to be ten or twelve pounds heavier this time if not more, and his condition was still damn tight. I doubt he will be in the top six, but he's right on the verge.
17) Mohammed El Moussawi
Moe has a very nice physique and showed up in great shape, but he looks small compared to the top men at the Mr. Olympia. He also needs more back, and I found it odd that he never really help his back poses until I figured out that he didn't want the judges to get a really good look at it - at least that's what I think was going on.
18) Silvio Samuel
The Matador was shredded, but more so from the back. From the front he seemed just a touch off the perfect condition we're used to seeing from him. On his own he looks great, but when he stands next to the bigger men Silvio doesn't appear to be so big. His lats are also pretty high, though I don't think there is much he can do about that. I give the guy credit for being able to compete in as many shows as he does.
19) Phil Heath
We knew The Gift would be bigger and better, and he was. Most notable were the improvements to his chest and back thickness. I guess that FST-7 really works! Heath was shredded as usual, too. The only think that hurts him still is his narrow appearance in some shots like his front lat spread, and his general lack of size when standing next to freaks like Cutler, Branch, and Kai.
20) Gustavo Badell
Gustavo managed to bring back something very close to the look he had a few years ago when he was top five in this show and was winning the infamous ‘Challenge Round." His legs are big again, so he must have figured something out. The only think I felt really hurt Gustavo was his color. He was actually TOO dark, and his color was uneven and blotchy. It looked to me like he used four whole bottles of Jan Tana.
21) Michael Kefalionos
This new pro from Greece looks fantastic standing by himself. He has good size, shape, and was shredded. But put him in the Mr. Olympia lineup, and Michael just doesn't have the mass to challenge these guys.
22) Ahmad Haidar
I could pretty much say all that about Ahmad. Needs more arms, and more mass to be in a show like this and expect to do well.
23) Dexter Jackson
Dexter looked a little bigger than last year, and probably a little tighter too. If Jay was off again or if Kai was dramatically improved, I think the Blade would be able to feel confident he could hold on to his Mr. O title for a second year. But the way it's looking, I doubt he can. Check the callouts and you be the judge.
Callout one:
Branch, Victor, Kai, Jay, Phil, Dexter
Callout two:
Hide, Ronny, Toney, Melvin, Moe, Silvio
Callout three:
Cutler, Dexter, Phil, Kai, Branch, Victor
Callout four:
Dennis James, Dennis Wolf, Ruhl, Gustavo, Ronny, Toney
Callout five:
Moe, Silvio, Gustavo, Hide, Dennis James,
Callout six:
Wolf, Troy, Melvin, Ruhl
Callout seven:
Ronny, Toney, Victor, Dennis James
Callout eight:
Gustavo, Wolf, Hide, Silvio, Moe, Ruhl
Callout nine:
Darrem, Martin, Bill, Joel, Michael, Ahmad
Callout ten:
Heath, Branch, Kai
Callout eleven:
Dexter, Branch, Kai
Callout twelve:
Jay and Dexter
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I am going to wrap this up by doing something I rarely do, which is give my prediction of what the top six will be. Let's see how close I end up being:
1. Jay Cutler
2. Dexter Jackson
3. Kai Greene
4. Branch Warren
5. Phil Heath
6. Victor Martinez
Now, my reasoning. Jay brought back ‘the old Jay' that pushed Ronnie so hard for several years. He was big, ripped, confident, and simply looked like a Mr. Olympia. Dexter looked great too, but most people agree that he slipped in the door last year by catching Jay at his worst. Kai looked to me pretty much the same as he did at the Arnold, which was amazing anyway. But for him to beat Jay and Dexter, a two-time Mr. O and a reigning Mr. O, they would have had to be off - and they certainly weren't. I feel Kai will be Mr. O one day - just not this weekend. The fact that the final callout was simply Jay and Dexter is indicative that they are one and two in the minds of the judges. Kai has a lot of fans, as do all these top guys, and the crowd is not going to be pleased tomorrow night when the placings are announced. Bet on it!